Caesars Travel (000796): The founder regains control of Shuaiyin’s business strategy worth looking forward to

The outbound tourism industry is pro-cyclical, short-term highlights of the Japanese Olympics, long-term penetration rate to increase the out-bound tourism industry pro-cyclical, significant flexibility in recovery, the leader takes into account its own strategies and other effects.

The current outbound tourism has begun to erupt in 2011. After 2015, the growth rate has increased due to various factors. Compared with Hong Kong and Macau tourism, overseas travel has shown the characteristics of differentiation and origination.

The long-term focus is on the increase in per capita GDP of second- and third-tier cities, and consumption upgrades have promoted the growth of outbound tourism demand; the passport holding rate of 10% + still has room for improvement.

In 2020, we will pay attention to the outbreak of Japanese tourism under the target differentiation. As the second largest overseas travel destination for Chinese people, the number of visits will increase by about 15% in the first nine months of this year.

The founder regained control and the market sentiment has eased. Cooperation and collaboration focus on the main business and seek to develop the company. It is the leader of the entire outbound tourism industry chain. One master and three assistants (travel 天津夜网 agency, catering, tax exemption, finance) seek development.Revenue, performance of 86%, 73%.

In 2015, the company landed on A shares with the support of HNA, with a market value of over 30 billion U.S. dollars. Later, it was under pressure due to the industry boom and HNA issues.

Founder Chen Xiaobing holds 28 shares.

98%, returned to the actual controller, the market sentiment has improved, and Chen Xiaobing has rich experience, is expected to continue to focus on the company’s main business of outbound tourism and actively seek development.

In addition, HNA is still expected to continue to be an important shareholder of the company and seek win-win cooperation on the basis of fair transactions.

The outbreak of Japan’s Youli boosted the recovery of outbound tourism, and new businesses such as tax exemptions brought 南宁桑拿 new perspectives in the future. The company’s private enterprise mechanism is flexible, with more than 200 outlets in the retail channel. The entire industry chain has obvious advantages and profitability.

From a fundamental point of view, the company’s business is expected to turn its inflection point up in 2020. It is mainly endorsed by the Olympics. Having exclusive agency rights for tickets will directly benefit the Tokyo Olympics and the outbreak of Japan travel.New businesses such as increased dividends and concentration, tax exemption will bring new long-term advantages.

From a market perspective, the company’s market value / estimated decline to historical lows and great flexibility. If subsequent outbound tourism resumes to meet the inflection point, the company strives to welcome Davis double-click, and entering the tax-free business will also help improve the valuation flexibility.

The company recently announced that it plans to not exceed 10 within the next year.

55 yuan repurchase 0.

5-1% employee equity incentive.

Risk reminders: macro, exchange rate, epidemic situation, intensified competition, less-than-expected business expansion, shareholder equity, etc.

Fundamentals are expected to usher in an inflection point. Olympic + tax exemption provides estimated flexibility. The “Buy” rating is expected to be EPS 0 in 19-21.

22/0.

30/0.

34 yuan, corresponding to PE37 / 28 / 24x.

The founder is in charge of Shuaiyin. It is expected to benefit from the Tokyo Olympics and the outbreak of Japan tours in 2020.

At present, the company is estimated to have a historically low level and great flexibility. The Olympic Games and the entry into the tax exemption will help increase the estimated flexibility, and it is planned to be no higher than 10.

The 55 yuan repurchase is an incentive for employees.

Give a reasonable price 10 in the next year.

4-10.

7 yuan (24% -29% of space, corresponding to PE35-36x in 2020), raised to “Buy” rating, it is recommended to track Japan’s prosperity and tax-free progress.