Desai Xiwei (002920): Q3 results turning point is coming

Key points for investment: In the second half of the year, the new products will be heavily concentrated, the auto market will stabilize, and the three factors of R & D expense control will work together.

(1) Mass production of new products: Changan Automobile Double 12.

3 Digital cockpit Q3 began to be supplied, and Volkswagen’s in-vehicle infotainment system Q4 began mass production. In the first half of the year, the sales volume of new Geely Xingyue (for automatic parking) supporting the company will gradually increase, and new products such as T-BOX will also begin mass production.
(2) After the release of the pressure of changing the country from country five to country six in Q2, the auto market in Q3 stabilized and recovered.

According to the perspective of Shenwan Automobile Group, the discount is expected to narrow sharply in July-September, and the wholesale and retail data in the second half of the year are just relatively certain events.

The Q3 auto market recovery will directly drive the company’s revenue from existing models and the gross profit margin will remain stable.

(3) The absolute amount of R & D expenses in the second quarter of the second half is expected to be the same as last year: Desaixiwei began to recruit R & D personnel in the direction of ADAS and connected car in April 2018. Until the end of 2018, the number of R & D personnel of the company was 1903, compared with 2017年 底数净增445人;由于2018年新斩获全生命周期150亿订单(年化70亿订单),新配套项目订单增加导致公司今年对应用开发人员数量需求增加,今年研发人数预计与去年相比There is still a need to add about 100 people, but compared to the same period last year, the scale of personnel recruitment has been significantly reduced.

We expect the R & D expenses for Q3 / Q4 2019 to be around 1.

5 trillion, while Q3 / Q4 2018 single quarter R & D expenses1.

400000000.

  The domestic ADAS industry has entered a critical period of rushing for orders, and a number of Xiwei’s landing projects have shown the company’s leading advantages in China.

In the in-depth report “Desai Xiwei: Super Strong Stocks with Improving Performance” that we released in March this year, we point out that 2018-2019 is a critical period for the domestic ADAS market to grab orders. On the eve of the outbreak, companies with increased orders willThe scale-up period will begin in 2020 and the real outbreak of domestic ADAS in 2021 will form a scale advantage and reduce costs to a level similar to that of foreign countries.

The advantage of scale can bring more orders, and in the future reduce the risk of resistance to future overseas TIER1 price reductions, and manufacturers without scale effects will gradually die out-Desaixiwei has mass-produced 360 surround view and fatigue driving monitoring systems, ADAS products such as automatic parking systems; among them, the automatic parking system independently developed by Desaixiwei has been mass-produced in Geely SUV, which is listed in May this year. Desaixiwei is the first in China to realize largeDomestic Tier1 for mass production of automatic parking systems.

In addition, Desaixiwei will soon mass-produce Nvidia’s GPU-based autonomous driving domain controller in 2020, which is also the first case in domestic Tier1.

Xiwei’s 77GHz millimeter-wave radar can also be mass-produced this year.

The above cases show the leading advantages 杭州桑拿 of Xiwei in the domestic ADAS field.

  LCD instrument panels have gradually penetrated from high-end cars to low-end cars, and LCD instrument panels will explode before ADAS this year.

As of the end of 2018, the penetration density of domestic full LCD instrument panels6.

36%. In Q1 2019, the assembly rate of new cars with full LCD instrument panels has risen to 23.

23%; while the new car is equipped with a full LCD instrument pilot indicator, the new car will increase the penetration rate after climbing up the sales weight to increase the weight-the data has shown that the LCD instrument has reached an explosion per second.

At present, Desaixiwei has received pre-installation orders from SAIC-GM, Changan Automobile, BYD and other replacement OEMs, and some have been mass-produced in 2019H2.

  Maintain earnings 南京夜网 forecasts and ratings.

EPS is expected to be 0 in 2019-2021.

83 yuan, 1.

26 yuan, 2.

13 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 30/19/12 times, maintain “Buy” rating.